Developing alternatives for optimal representation of seafloor habitats and associated communities in Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary

The implementation of various types of marine protected areas is one of several management tools available for conserving representative examples of the biological diversity within marine ecosystems in general and National Marine Sanctuaries in particular. However, deciding where and how many sites to establish within a given area is frequently hampered by incomplete knowledge of the distribution of organisms and an understanding of the potential tradeoffs that would allow planners to address frequently competing interests in an objective manner. Fortunately, this is beginning to change. Recent studies on the continental shelf of the northeastern United States suggest that substrate and water mass characteristics are highly correlated with the composition of benthic communities and may therefore, serve as proxies for the distribution of biological biodiversity. A detailed geo-referenced interpretative map of major sediment types within Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary (SBNMS) has recently been developed, and computer-aided decision support tools have reached new levels of sophistication. We demonstrate the use of simulated annealing, a type of mathematical optimization, to identify suites of potential conservation sites within SBNMS that equally represent 1) all major sediment types and 2) derived habitat types based on both sediment and depth in the smallest amount of space. The Sanctuary was divided into 3610 0.5 min2 sampling units. Simulations incorporated constraints on the physical dispersion of sampling units to varying degrees such that solutions included between one and four site clusters. Target representation goals were set at 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 percent of each sediment type, and 10 and 20 percent of each habitat type. Simulations consisted of 100 runs, from which we identified the best solution (i.e., smallest total area) and four nearoptimal alternates. We also plotted total instances in which each sampling unit occurred in solution sets of the 100 runs as a means of gauging the variety of spatial configurations available under each scenario. Results suggested that the total combined area needed to represent each of the sediment types in equal proportions was equal to the percent representation level sought. Slightly larger areas were required to represent all habitat types at the same representation levels. Total boundary length increased in direct proportion to the number of sites at all levels of representation for simulations involving sediment and habitat classes, but increased more rapidly with number of sites at higher representation levels. There were a large number of alternate spatial configurations at all representation levels, although generally fewer among one and two versus three- and four-site solutions. These differences were less pronounced among simulations targeting habitat representation, suggesting that a similar degree of flexibility is inherent in the spatial arrangement of potential protected area systems containing one versus several sites for similar levels of habitat representation. We attribute these results to the distribution of sediment and depth zones within the Sanctuary, and to the fact that even levels of representation were sought in each scenario. (PDF contains 33 pages.

A bioregional classification of the continental shelf of northeastern North America for conservation analysis and planning based on representation

Understanding how well National Marine Sanctuaries and other marine protected areas represent the diversity of species present within and among the biogeographic regions where they occur is essential for assessing their conservation value and identifying gaps in the protection of biological diversity. One of the first steps in any such assessment should be the development of clearly defined and scientifically justified planning boundaries representing distinct oceanographic conditions and faunal assemblages. Here, we propose a set of boundaries for the continental shelf of northeastern North America defined by subdivisions of the Eastern Temperate Province, based on a review and synthesis (i.e. meta-analysis) of the scientific literature. According to this review, the Eastern Temperate Province is generally divided into the Acadian and Virginian Subprovinces. Broad agreement places the Scotian Shelf, Gulf of Maine, and Bay of Fundy within the Acadian Subprovince. The proper association of Georges Bank is less clear; some investigators consider it part of the Acadian and others part of the Virginian. Disparate perspectives emerge from the analysis of different groups of organisms. Further, while some studies suggest a distinction between the Southern New England shelf and the rest of the Mid-Atlantic Bight, others describe the region as a broad transition zone with no unique characteristics of its own. We suggest there exists sufficient evidence to consider the Scotian Shelf, Gulf of Maine, Georges Bank, Southern New England, and Southern Mid-Atlantic Bight as distinct biogeographic regions from a conservation planning perspective, and present a set of proposed mapped boundaries. (PDF contains 23 pages.

Deconstructing climate misinformation to identify reasoning errors

Misinformation can have significant societal consequences. For example, misinformation about climate change has confused the public and stalled support for mitigation policies. When people lack the expertise and skill to evaluate the science behind a claim, they typically rely on heuristics such as substituting judgment about something complex (i.e. climate science) with judgment about something simple (i.e. the character of people who speak about climate science) and are therefore vulnerable to misleading information. Inoculation theory offers one approach to effectively neutralize the influence of misinformation. Typically, inoculations convey resistance by providing people with information that counters misinformation. In contrast, we propose inoculating against misinformation by explaining the fallacious reasoning within misleading denialist claims. We offer a strategy based on critical thinking methods to analyse and detect poor reasoning within denialist claims. This strategy includes detailing argument structure, determining the truth of the premises, and checking for validity, hidden premises, or ambiguous language. Focusing on argument structure also facilitates the identification of reasoning fallacies by locating them in the reasoning process. Because this reason-based form of inoculation is based on general critical thinking methods, it offers the distinct advantage of being accessible to those who lack expertise in climate science. We applied this approach to 42 common denialist claims and find that they all demonstrate fallacious reasoning and fail to refute the scientific consensus regarding anthropogenic global warming. This comprehensive deconstruction and refutation of the most common denialist claims about climate change is designed to act as a resource for communicators and educators who teach climate science and/or critical thinking

G+++ and Brane Solutions

We demonstrate that the very extended G+++ group element of the form $g_A=\exp(-{\frac{1}{(\beta,\beta)}\ln N}\beta \cdot H)\exp((1-N)E_\beta)$ describes the usual BPS, electric, single brane solutions found in G+++ theories.Comment: One new equation, added references, corrected typos and minor changes, 42 pages, 6 figures, LaTeX2

Agricultural Employment Trends in an Enlarged European Union: Does the CAP Reform/Introduction Matter?

In the course of economic development there is a general downward trend of agricultural employment, although structural change in agriculture is often delayed. In the EU-15, agricultural employment decreased by -2.3% p.a. (measured in regular persons) and -3.0% p.a. (measured in annual working units) between 1995 and 2000. In some of the new EU Member States, employment in agriculture plummeted in the early 1990s, whereas in others it increased during the first years of transition and has served as a social buffer in times of economic hardship. The most important determinants of agricultural employment changes are labor saving technical progress, the macroeconomic environment, the farm structure, socio-economic characteristics of the farmer and agricultural support policies. Currently, farmers in the enlarged EU are facing significant policy changes, both in the EU-15 (2003 CAP reform) and in the new Member States (CAP introduction). The results of 15 case studies assessing the future development of agricultural employment and the impact of CAP reform/introduction confirm the general downward trend which overall will not be much affected by these policy changes. However, the case studies also reveal significant differences between regions and enterprises.Agricultural labor market, agricultural policy, European Union, transition countries, case studies, Agricultural and Food Policy, Labor and Human Capital, J43, Q18, Q19,

AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS IN AN ENLARGED EUROPEAN UNION: DOES THE CAP REFORM / INTRODUCTION MATTER?

In the course of economic development there is a general downward trend of agricultural employment. In the EU-15, agricultural employment decreased by 2.3% p.a. (measured in regular persons) and 3.0% p.a. (measured in annual working units) between 1995 and 2000. In some of the new EU Member States, employment in agriculture plummeted in the early 1990s, whereas in others it increased during the first years of transition and has served as a social buffer in times of economic hardship. The most important determinants of agricultural employment changes are labor saving technical progress, the macroeconomic environment, the farm structure, socio-economic characteristics of the farmer and agricultural support policies. Currently, farmers in the enlarged EU are facing significant policy changes, both in the EU-15 (2003 CAP reform) and in the new Member States (CAP introduction). The results of 15 case studies assessing the future development of agricultural employment and the impact of CAP reform/introduction confirm the general downward trend which overall will not be much affected by these policy changes. However, the case studies also reveal significant differences between regions and enterprises.Agricultural labor market, agricultural policy, European Union, transition countries, case studies., Agricultural and Food Policy,

Using the literature to quantify the learning curve: a case study

Objective: To assess whether a literature review of a technology can allow a learning curve to be quantified. Methods: The literature for fibreoptic intubation was searched for studies reporting information relevant to the learning curve. The Cochrane Librar y, Medline, Embase and Science Citation index were searched. Studies that reported a procedure time were included. Data were abstracted on the three features of learning: initial level, rate of learning and asymptote level. Random effect meta-analysis was performed. Results: Only 21 studies gave explicit information concerning the previous experience of the operator(s). There were 32 different definitions of procedure time. From 4 studies of fibreoptic nasotracheal intubation, the mean starting level and time for the 10th procedure (95% confidence interval) was estimated to be 133s (113, 153) and 71s (62, 79) respectively. Conclusions: The review approach allowed learning to be quantified for our example technology. Poor and insufficient reporting constrained formal statistical estimation. Standardised reporting of non-drug techniques with adequate learning curve details is needed to inform trial design and costeffectiveness analysis

The association of metacognitive beliefs with emotional distress after diagnosis of cancer.

Objective: Emotional distress after a diagnosis of cancer is normal and, for most people, will diminish over time. However, a significant minority of patients with cancer experience persistent or recurrent symptoms of emotional distress for which they need help. A model developed in mental health, the self-regulatory executive function model (S-REF), specifies that maladaptive metacognitive beliefs and processes, including persistent worry, are key to understanding why such emotional problems persist. This cross-sectional study explored, for the first, time whether metacognitive beliefs were associated with emotional distress in a cancer population, and whether this relationship was mediated by worry, as predicted by the S-REF model. Method: Two hundred twenty-nine participants within 3 months of diagnosis of, and before treatment for, primary breast or prostate cancer completed self-report questionnaires measuring anxiety, depression, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms, metacognitive beliefs, worry, and illness perceptions. Results: Regression analysis showed that metacognitive beliefs were associated with symptoms of anxiety, depression, and PTSD, and explained additional variance in these outcomes after controlling for age, gender, and illness perceptions. Structural equation modeling was consistent with cross-sectional hypotheses derived from the theory that metacognitive beliefs cause and maintain distress both directly and indirectly by driving worry. Conclusions: The findings provide promising first evidence that the S-REF model may be usefully applied in cancer. Further study is required to establish the predictive and clinical utility of these findings